Ziheng YANG, University College London, UK.

"Estimation of species divergence dates from molecular sequence data"

Estimating the age of speciation events is not only fascinating to evolutionary biologists in satisfying their curiosity in knowing the antiquity of a given species or clade, but also important to advancing evolutionary theory. By placing a given divergence event in the correct temporal setting, one can determine the geological and environmental context for that event and consequently gain a better understanding of speciation and dispersal mechanisms. Date estimation is relatively straightforward if the molecular clock holds, that is, if the evolutionary rate is constant among lineages. However, the clock is often violated, especially when distantly related species are compared, and date estimation is known to be sensitive to assumptions about rates (such as the clock). As date and rate are intrinsically confounded in sequence data, date estimation without the clock is a tricky business. The problem can be elevated to some extent by analyzing multiple gene loci simultaneously and by using multiple calibration points, since the divergence times are shared across all genes, even though they might have different patterns of evolutionary rate change, and since multiple calibration points help characterize local evolutionary rates on the phylogeny. Recently there have been considerable interest and advances in statistical and computational methods for estimating divergence dates while relaxing the clock assumption. This talk will review recent developments and challenges in maximum likelihood and Bayes Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for divergence date estimation without the assumption of a global molecular clock.